Saturday morning again and this week its me the cat and the wife. Another beautiful sunny day in Melbourne and my beloved Magpies are playing the Saints this weekend, "c'arn the Pies".
FOREX:
The good ol' green back persisits in not knowing what it is doing and like its makers is creating instability throughout the free world. Lifestyle trader had exit and entry signals galore this morning,
British Pound / US Dollar exit signal on short trade and an entry signal for long trade.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar exit signal for long trade and an entry signal for short trade.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc exit signal for long trade and an entry signal for short trade.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar entry signal for a long trade.
British Pound / Japanese Yen exit signal for short trade and an entry signal for long trade.
Every currency pair except Euro / British pound went the wrong direction today so profits on open trades is way down on yesterday.
Profits on open trades is currently $1,420.70 and profits on closed trades is -$3,316.40 a total lose of $1,895.70 or -5.12% on my original account.
Day two of non US Dollar pairs shows an open profit of $808.40 or an increase of 2.18%.
The opinions expresses in this blog are those of the author and do not represent the opinions of the US Dollar or its makers, please don't shoot the messenger.
COMMODITIES:
Grains and Livestock are both doing well and heading in the right direction while Softs are a bit up and down today.
Lifestyle trader signaled an entry to go long on Feeder Cattle and an exit signal for my short Live Cattle trade. There was also an exit signal for my short Coffee trade with a signal to enter a long trade. I also closed my long trade on Cotton at a lose of $225 and received an entry signal to go long again while Orange Juice continues in it winning ways.
I currently only have two trades that are in the red, being of course Cocoa, though not as red as yesterday and Coffee, though the entry signal to go long looks like a very strong signal and we will see how that compares to the recently closed short trade.
Profits on open trades is currently $10,207.00 and closed trades is $7,863.00 a total of $18,070.00 an increase of 37.65% on my original account.
Here on the eastern side of Australia we get data for forex at 7:15 am and data for commodities at 9:15 am. I am usually finished looking after forex trades and writing up the forex part of this blog by 8:15 am so today I decide to go for a walk around our local lake. WOW, am I pumped up now and ready for whatever today manifests.
FOREX:
Closed 3 trades today,
Short trade on US Dollar / Swiss Franc with a lose of $144
Long trade on Australian Dollar / US Dollar with a lose of $730
Long trade on Euro / British Pound with a profit of $2,462.80
I also entered a new short trade on Euro / British Pound and there was an entry signal to open a long trade on US Dollar / Swiss Franc.
for the full ten pairs the profit on open trades is $6,161.10 and closed trades is - $3,316.40 a total of $2844.70 or an increase of 7.69% on my opening account.
For the non US Dollar pairs (starting from today) profit on open trades is $620.40 or an increase of 1.68% on my original opening account. (see the paper trading day 30 for an explanation)
COMMODITIES:
Everything is trending in the right direction here except, dare I say it cocoa. Closed my short trade on cocoa today taking a lose of $970 and entered a long trade that closed the day lower than it opened.
There was an exit signal for my long trade on cotton.
profits on open trades is currently $7,982.5 and closed trades is $8,088 a total of $16,070.50 an increase of 33.48% on my original account.
1/3 of the way there a good time to review what has been happening.
FOREX:
Closed one trade today Euro / US Dollar taking a lose of $1130.
Profits on open trades stands at $9,492.65 and profit on closed trades is -$4,905.20 a total of $4,587.45 or an increase of 12.4%
With three open trades in the red and seven in the green and over $9,000 in profits on open trades, on the other side we have close to -$5000 in closed trades. Just from looking at the open trades I can see that over $8000 of the open profits is in three trades, and none of those three has the US dollar in the pair. As I have mentioned in the past the US Dollar seems to be very turbulant at the moment, in my opinion. And as 18 of 25 losing trades have the US Dollar in them it would seem that I would probably be better of not trading them at all. If I removed all closed trades with the US Dollar in them I would have close to $2000 in profits on closed trades.
If I only traded the four currency pairs that dont have the US Dollar in them the difference would then be that profits on open trades stands at $8,204.35 and profit on closed trades is $1,982.15 a total of $10,186.50 or an increase of 27.53% on my original balance thats more than double what it currently is plus both open and closed trades are in profit.
I believe that Lifestyle Trader suggests that you paper trade for 90 days for this very reason, so that you can see what happens before you use real money. I think that from now on with forex I will keep two sets of records, one for all ten currency pairs and one just for the four pairs that dont have the US Dollar in them and I can see how they compare for the next 60 days.
COMMODITIES:
As always not a lot to report here. I was stopped out of my short trade on Feeder cattle, however because I am using trailing stops as suggested at the three day trading workshop, I came out with a profit of $1,032.50.
As I mentioned last week Cocoa seems to be my horror story and it has done it to me again closing the day on the wrong side of my entry price with an exit signal and an entry signal to go the other direction. Overall my open trades are down a little on yesterday, however over the long term they do seem to be trending in the right direction.
Profit on open trades is currently $3843.75 while profit on closed trades is $9,058 a total of $12,901.75 or a 26.88% increase on my original account.
As you can see I am doing quite nicely trading commodities and this is because I have only been trading Grains, Livestock and Softs. All food stuff and everybody needs to eat.
I was chatting with a reader of my blog this morning who is now live trading. He mentioned that his winning trades were less than mine and his losing trades were higher than mine and that things are quite different once you are using the live trading platform as opposed to paper trading where you use the open and close prices for the day. I agree whole heartedly that this is correct, however he also mention that while he was paper trading he made a profit of $90,000 but since live trading has lost $35,000. This seems to be a common story with some people, not all but some.
This was mentioned in the three day workshop and I have seen it myself in the past when I was trading shares. So what is the difference, surely the software doesn't know the difference between live trading and paper trading, it just reports what is. The difference is the emotions that we place around the money forcing us to do things not the way we should. Let me give you an example, I once went into a trade on Ansell an ASX top 100 company, the price was rising quite nicely then started to fall. Not wanting to lose any of the profits I had gained from this trade I immediately sold the shares at a profit of 73%. The very next day the price turned around and continued to rise over the next few months to a profit of close to 300%. The mistake I made was allowing emotion to get involved and not following the rules, If I had followed the rules I would have seen that the fall in price was actually a flagging pattern which is an indication that the price is going to continue to rise, not fall.
Guys these systems work, they have been tested time and time again. Now I am not saying that this will not happen to me again however, if you are not making money then you are not following the rules properly. Maybe you have an issue with money that you need to deal with and I can suggest a friend who is very good at dealing with these sort of issues. He is a mindset magician and a relationship guru and lets face it this is about our relationship with money. If you want some more information then get onto his website people insights - mindset magic.
Up bright and early this morning with expectation for a good day. Cup of coffee and I'm ready to go.
FOREX:
Well it seems that the up and down US Dollar is still up and down with trades opened today giving exit signals and entry signals to go back the other way. So lets just look at the bottom line.
Profits on open trades stands at $8,019.30 while closed trades is -$3,775.20 a total profit of $4,244.10 or an increase of 11.47% on my opening account.
COMMODITIES:
I must say that I am enjoying the commodities much more than the forex. It has a nice growth rate without any big surprises so far. I closed five trades today,
Long on Oats with a profit of $780
Long on Soybean Meal with a lose of $260
Long on Soybeans with a lose of $500
Long on Wheat with a lose of $450
Short on Cotton with a profit of $710
there was also an entry signal to open a short trade on Corn, an entry signal to open a short trade on Soybean Meal and an entry signal to open a short trade on Wheat.
Profit on open trades is currently $7752.50 and profit on closed trades is $8,025.50 a total of $15,778.00, an increase of 32.87% on my original account.
And now that the dust has settled on last weeks turbulent forex market things are not looking so bad. Thankfully, and looking forward to some good news from Aussie Rob about his sporting sponsorship deal. I have a funny feeling he is looking at sponsoring my favourite footy team but will wait and see what transpires today. I am also very excited about what is going to happen with his new island, fingers crossed for me. But I diverge so lets get back on track.
FOREX:
No news like good news the US Dollar continues to drop against the Aussie Dollar.
Lifestyle Trader gave exit an signal for short trade on Euro / US Dollar with an entry signal to go long, an exit signal for long trade on US Dollar / Canadian Dollar, an exit signal for long trade on US Dollar / Swiss Franc with an entry signal to go short, and an exit signal for long trade on Euro / Swiss Franc.
Profits on open trades is $5,475.85 while closed trades remains at -$1,599.00 a total of $3,876.85 or 10.48% on my opening account.
COMMODITIES:
Plenty of action going on here. Got an exit signal on long trade with oats and an entry signal to go short. Also got an exit signal on long trade of soybeans with an entry signal to go short. and an exit signal on long trade of wheat. I closed my short trade on coffee with a profit of $5,006.25 and received an entry signal to go short again. there was also an exit signal for short trade on cotton with an entry signal to go long. All my other trades are humming along.
Profit on open trades now stands at $5,695 and closed trades is in profit to the tune of $7,745.50 a total of $13,440.50 or 28% on my original account.
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